When Jason and I interviewed Azam Ahmed for the Due Diligence podcast this week, Azam reminded us that one of the reasons he purchased real estate in Buckhead is because he loves Atlanta’s live music culture and that he considers Atlanta a crucial city for R&B, hip hop and rap music.
Jason then reminded us that when Azam was in town in November, they went to the 25th anniversary party for Buckhead’s venerable nightclub, Tongue & Groove. And, Lil Jon turnt up. He DJed and it was apparently an Atlanta hit list, non-stop, all night.
I’ve seen over 1500 live music events and concerts since 1974.
I watched Prince perform live 8 times between 1988 and 2006. I’ve seen The Rolling Stones 6 times and I’m holding tickets for their July show in Atlanta, which is being rescheduled. My daughter and I are holding VIP tickets for the 3d hologram tour of Hatsune Miku – rescheduled from April 24 to October 24.
As you can see, I love music just like Azam loves music. And, I agree with him, Atlanta is a cultural bastion for great music, concerts, local festivals, massive national festivals, music performance and music production.
My post from two Mondays ago referenced my lost Marty Stuart show from March 12 – things stopped being the same after that week and now, we have some artists “going out of business.” We can see the “event economy” and show business in general coming in last when this COVID calamity is resolved.
In the meantime, Atlanta’s residential real estate market is in rapid sales mode – at least 50% of the market is moving within a matter of days and quite often for list price or higher.
In the past 7 days, 409 houses arrived on the market in Intown Atlanta – 313 houses, condos, lofts and townhouses (mostly houses) went under contract.
The average pending sale is priced at $505,806 and the average price per square foot was $232/sf based on the average square footage of the 313 houses at 1998 square feet.
That’s a big number for Atlanta’s average and this is only a week in time – we often have a much lower average sales price. Regardless, Atlanta real estate certainly ain’t turnin’ down. And, at $505K average, many buyers are likely taking advantage of today’s extra low interest rates on “conventional mortgage” loans.
So, as the rest of the economy moves at an uncertain pace, Atlanta real estate is having a mini-Spring market and is expected to have a Spring Market sell off again this Fall.
This could be a 2020 thing for Atlanta. Maybe a 2021 thing. How much farther ahead can we forecast a robust, rather balanced seller to buyer market? Are condos already piling up? Are some flips ridiculously overpriced? Is inventory starting to pile up in some submarkets?
Yes, yes, and yes – that’s the other 50% of the market. Radically, check out this statistic – 409 houses made a price change in the last 7 days. That’s more units than the pending count by 25ish percent. Those 409 sellers were failing at their recent prices, so they dropped. And, many will sell in the next 90 days.
Save Our Stages is a campaign started by the recently formed National Independent Venue Association which is appealing to Congress to explain the unique situation of the concerts and live music business. I hope that we can save the “event economy” temporarily and re-establish Atlanta’s vital scene. The event economy drives a large piece of Atlanta’s economy and Atlanta’s culture. In a year or two, I expect that things will be back to a new normal. Slowly and surely.
“The concert industry was the first to shut down and may be one of the last to reopen,” said Greg Green, talent buyer for The Masquerade.
One thing that is a sure thing in the meantime – the housing economy is not turning down in Atlanta.