In an interview with Bank Of America CEO Brian Moynihan, the following summary of the current state of the US economy emerged:
1. There is a flight to quality right now, and tons of money is flowing towards the USA in an unstable global economy.
2. The US consumer is everything: right now they are employed, earning more and spending more. (Recent Target and Lowe’s results confirm this.)
3. Consumer spending with BoFa clients alone is up 5.9% over 2018. Consumer spending is STRONG, representing around 70% of the entire US economy.
4. The odds of a recession are always around 20%, even when the economy is strong.
5. The combination of the China-US trade wars, Euro slowdown and Brexit are driving anxiety and draining business energy.
6. The US economy must do well to hold up the world economies. The US economy is HUGE: US healthcare alone is the size of all of India’s economy.
7. Current economic data don’t indicate a need for extreme measures.
8. Large corporations with global reach are more impacted by economic weakness outside of the US.
9. BoFa predicts GDP growth of around 2.3% for 2019. (CNBC)